The possibility of a rate cut in July is dim, and many Fed officials tend to continue to wait and see
This week, several Fed officials made it clear that they need to wait a few more months to be sure that the price increases caused by tariffs will not push up inflation in a sustained manner. Earlier, Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chairman for Supervision Michelle Bowman attracted attention for their remarks that they might support a rate cut at the July meeting if inflation remains under control. However, nearly a dozen policymakers, including Chairman Powell, New York Fed President John Williams, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, poured cold water on this view. In addition, three regional Fed presidents also hinted that they were not ready to cut interest rates at the next meeting. Powell testified in Congress on Tuesday that if it were not for the uncertainty about the future price outlook due to tariffs, the Fed might have started to cut interest rates now based on the decline in inflation alone. But there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates.