The Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany released a trade policy assessment, saying that if US President Trump imposes a 25% tariff on EU goods, it will lead to economic contraction in both the EU and the US, and will also push up inflationary pressure. According to the results of the institute's trade policy assessment model simulation, the real GDP of the EU economy will shrink by an average of 0.4% in the first year. The US economy itself will shrink by 0.17%. If the EU retaliates with a 25% tariff, the US economic losses will double. In addition, even in the first year of implementing this measure, European exports to the US will fall sharply, by an average of 15% to 17%.