Institutional strategy: Policy expectations from the two sessions may provide good support for A-shares
2025-03-04 08:22:44

China Fortune Securities pointed out that the "spring agitation" has been realized since before the Spring Festival. With the positive news of emerging industries such as AI and the early trading of the two sessions and fiscal policies, the market has continued to rise and the heat has been significantly restored. Currently, after a round of valuation repair + key points of policy game, the market has fluctuated and increased. How to grasp the rhythm of the two sessions in the future? Referring to the historical market conditions before and after the two sessions, there has been continuous upward fluctuations: it has risen in advance before the meeting, may be temporarily suspended during the meeting, and will continue to rise after the meeting. The direction is expected to continue TMT growth/small cap (growth upward + continuation of the main line before the meeting). In March, policy transactions will be suspended, and dividends may be cut in stages. Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that the A-share market encountered resistance in its attempt to rise on Monday, and the Shanghai Composite Index basically showed a pattern of small fluctuations and consolidation throughout the day. The current average price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.07 times and 37.92 times, respectively, which are at the median average level of the past three years and are suitable for medium- and long-term layout. Countercyclical regulatory policies continue to be strengthened, fiscal efforts and monetary easing provide support, and deepening of capital market reform has become the focus. ETF funds continue to flow in, the trend of residents' savings moving to the equity market intensifies, and signs of foreign capital repatriation are beginning to emerge. March is a key window for spring turmoil. Policy expectations, improved liquidity and the start of the earnings season will boost market sentiment. Recently, foreign institutions have regained their attention to A-shares, and policy optimization and low valuations remain the core attractions. As domestic macro-control and growth-promoting policies continue to be implemented, the future market is expected to be led by technology, dividend defense, consumption recovery and domestic demand-driven. It is recommended to seize structural opportunities and balance defense and growth. We still need to pay close attention to changes in policies, funding and foreign markets. In the short term, we recommend focusing on investment opportunities in industries such as batteries, energy metals, chemicals, and medical services.
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