According to a CICC research report, the United States added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, showing that the labor market is still resilient. Although the uncertainty of tariffs has reduced labor demand, the supply of labor has also slowed down with the strengthening of the deportation policy, which has curbed the rise in the unemployment rate. In addition, there may be a skill mismatch in the labor market: on the one hand, government layoffs and the rapid development of artificial intelligence have led to a "white-collar surplus"; on the other hand, the tightening of immigration policies has led to a continuous shortage of low-skilled jobs. Under this structural mismatch, the unemployment rate may not necessarily rise significantly in the future. We believe that the June non-farm data does not support the Fed's early interest rate cut. We maintain our previous judgment that the next interest rate cut may have to wait until the fourth quarter, that is, after the price increase caused by tariffs has passed.