Morgan Stanley: It is expected that by the end of 2026, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will be relatively mild and may reach 7.05
This morning, the MSCI China Index rose, extending its gains from its April low to 20%. From the current situation, the bullish trend of the Chinese stock market is indeed strengthening. Morgan Stanley said that investors are particularly concerned about new technologies and new business models in the Chinese market, especially new consumer themes and artificial intelligence/technology-related themes. Investors have also given more recognition to China's improved capabilities in global technological competition, such as breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and progress in electric vehicles, batteries, humanoid robots, etc., and have begun to rethink the strategy of investing in both the Chinese and American markets in a multipolar world. In terms of exchange rates, Morgan Stanley has changed its view on the renminbi against the US dollar from depreciation to appreciation. This shift reflects its expectations for a weaker US dollar, and it is expected that the US dollar index may fall to 89 by the end of 2026. At the same time, the euro is also expected to appreciate by more than 10% against the US dollar. However, Morgan Stanley expects that the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar will be relatively mild by the end of 2026, possibly reaching 7.05.