On March 30th local time, Goldman Sachs Group of the United States released a report, raising the probability of an economic recession in the United States in the next 12 months from the previous 20% to 35%. The report said that the United States' aggressive tariff policy will increase inflation and unemployment rates, hinder U.S. economic growth and increase the risk of recession. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the upward revision to its recession odds was driven by “a sharp deterioration in household and business confidence and rhetoric from White House officials that they are more willing to tolerate near-term economic weakness in order to achieve their policy objectives.” After US President Trump's tariff policy is implemented, the US economy will be widely negatively affected, and "the risks posed by the tariff policy are greater than many market participants expected." Goldman Sachs also predicted that the average U.S. tariff rate will increase by 15 percentage points this year, 5 percentage points higher than previously expected. Higher tariff levels could lead to higher inflation. Goldman Sachs Group expects that by the end of this year, the year-on-year increase in the U.S. core CPI will be 3.5%, significantly higher than the previous forecast of 2.8% and the Federal Reserve's 2% target. By then, the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%.