CITIC Securities: It is expected that some leading companies planning to list in both places will start to see a market trend as their Hong Kong stock listings are completed.
2025-03-09 17:12:16

CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that investors have two major worries in this round of spring turmoil: First, the Hong Kong stock market is bullish and the A-share market is volatile. The differentiation of the two markets has caused the performance differentiation of institutional products; second, the domestic macro volatility is decreasing, and the market has entered a small macro year from a three-year macro year, but many of the original barbell strategies for dealing with violent macro fluctuations are difficult to complete the adjustment when the market rises rapidly. From the perspective of market differentiation, in this round of spring turmoil with the new economy as the main line, the best core assets in the Internet, hard technology, smart cars and innovative drugs are concentrated in the Hong Kong stock market. This is the essential reason why the Hong Kong stock market is bullish while the A-share market is still volatile. About 60% of public fund management products do not have the right to connect to the Hong Kong stock market. Even if they have the right, the investment ratio of Hong Kong stocks is estimated to be about 26.5% higher than the upper limit of the fund contract. The performance differentiation and the horse racing mechanism are driving the allocation-type holdings to accelerate the shift from A-shares to Hong Kong stocks, exacerbating the differentiation of the market trends in the two places. From the perspective of strategic paradigm, the past three years have been big years for macroeconomics, with macroeconomic fluctuations and policy responses being the main variables driving the market, and the barbell strategy becoming a way to deal with frequent macroeconomic disturbances; in contrast, this year, the policy direction and goals are clear, domestic macroeconomic fluctuations are decreasing, and the market is transitioning to a small year for macroeconomics. Marginal changes in macroeconomics and policies are unlikely to become factors driving the direction and structure of the market, and the idea of industry prosperity is taking over the barbell strategy. In terms of response, end-side AI and high-energy-density batteries are relatively exclusive industrial themes for A-shares, and we expect intensive catalysis in the second quarter; the liquidation of traditional core assets in A-shares is accelerating, and in the future, as the economy recovers, there will be operating inflection points. At the same time, we expect that some leading companies that plan to list in both places will start the market as the Hong Kong stock market is listed.
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