CICC: Focus on transportation Hong Kong stocks, dividend sectors and cash flow improvement targets in the second half of the year
CICC's research report believes that in the first half of 2025, the transportation sector showed the characteristics of small tickets outperforming large tickets and H shares outperforming A shares. On the one hand, it reflects the attractiveness of H shares with lower valuations and higher dividends, and on the other hand, the frequent thematic market. In the second half of the year, we continue to suggest that Hong Kong stocks are optimistic and pay attention to two types of opportunities. One is to follow the dividends, especially free cash flow, for allocation, including: 1) traditional high-dividend sectors, optimistic about targets with fundamentals that have expectation gaps and low valuations; 2) container shipping, optimistic about the Asian and domestic trade container shipping markets, both short-term (peak season in the second half of the year) and long-term (small boat supply, higher regional demand growth) logic are favorable; 3) free cash flow improves and future shareholder returns are expected to increase. Second, pay attention to sectors that may have marginal changes in the second half of the year and whose current valuations and expectations are low, such as 1) logistics, focusing on new technologies (+AI), new markets (global expansion), and new models (high prosperity of instant retail); 2) oil transportation, production increases first and exports increase later, and the peak season starts in the fourth quarter; 3) franchise express delivery, the three factors of supervision, platform and market have reached a new balance, and the marginal easing of competition is expected to bring about valuation repair; 4) aviation, ticket price improvement and fuel cost reduction have led to a significant year-on-year increase in profits.